Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 81579.003690 86133.519025 90688.084059 95581.202007 100686.002875 105851.289092 111469.534412
2025-02-23 73937.904146 80902.581723 88064.498474 95969.506129 104439.702429 113232.868842 123041.052003
2025-03-02 68318.707220 76899.212053 85918.894437 96086.163042 107206.761549 118979.128501 132362.142275
2025-03-09 64798.168945 74671.002275 85239.511660 97359.816910 110839.798350 125335.980721 142067.255190
2025-03-16 60927.672388 71707.222469 83435.246428 97092.466798 112506.598558 129312.007373 148965.482345
2025-03-23 58714.315754 70395.047532 83285.505350 98497.202143 115885.077712 135067.249711 157753.669087
2025-03-30 56495.068887 68911.313973 82795.067060 99380.607086 118560.360054 139947.625418 165500.550104
2025-04-06 54099.017589 67079.836846 81777.367607 99538.886454 120303.643122 143691.493652 171900.007204
2025-04-13 51819.666732 65265.037858 80670.187427 99490.864708 121720.309032 146993.507750 177745.345111
2025-04-20 50576.262678 64606.564904 80855.005165 100901.322120 124796.198216 152190.413067 185784.180620
2025-04-27 49411.410407 63976.852726 81017.927596 102238.210602 127751.941856 157232.291228 193649.462756
2025-05-04 47972.768189 62946.690862 80642.199377 102878.534627 129840.025926 161231.268824 200284.175353
2025-05-11 46250.013869 61523.776311 79760.377930 102890.478145 131177.134202 164366.471495 205952.484094
2025-05-18 44884.814861 60496.140411 79319.815639 103406.160957 133102.216865 168199.747747 212473.068400
2025-05-25 43425.189276 59293.904332 78614.449974 103552.038514 134542.874125 171431.759251 218269.767186
2025-06-01 42639.879688 58914.467436 78904.601670 104909.871787 137459.926542 176452.839938 226252.995067
2025-06-08 41135.001010 57556.796466 77917.782027 104626.837379 138311.644056 178935.848310 231139.084473
2025-06-15 40527.050124 57337.446693 78352.058623 106119.324277 141369.703588 184130.097490 239370.778406
2025-06-22 39707.902148 56809.790044 78366.263609 107057.702811 143721.604315 188455.506501 246551.576134
2025-06-29 38596.070991 55857.737619 77801.067599 107225.823279 145079.756860 191538.915447 252199.447770
2025-07-06 37446.266375 54818.432445 77089.417630 107174.821029 146135.774779 194232.202841 257361.522475
2025-07-13 36998.701886 54707.948116 77578.612904 108672.763807 149171.488565 199417.583830 265667.745279
2025-07-20 36541.743178 54566.770396 78013.890884 110092.354884 152107.431855 204489.918671 273861.375652